Forecast of the transport situation in 2024: Air transport - supply exceeds demand?

According to speakers at the International Air Cargo Association (TIACA) Executive Summit event, executives in the air cargo sector predict 2024 demand. will not change or increase slightly compared to 2023. However, these experts also warn that demand in 2024 is difficult to predict given the current changes and challenges of the market. this school.

Challenge Group CEO Yossi Shoukroun said that the geopolitical situation will be a major barrier to growth expectations. He said: "Unfortunately, in 2024 the global economy and geopolitical situation seem to show no signs of improvement, and hopes for de-escalation of conflicts in current "hot spots" still remain. very hot".

This could put pressure on air cargo capacity as passenger services are reduced in response to lower demand from travelers due to political instability and rising fuel prices, Shoukroun added. He added that passenger travel demand may also be affected by extreme weather conditions occurring in many places around the globe. Besides, he believes that to overcome the above mentioned challenges to benefit air cargo operators, they need to realize that the lack of storage space will have an impact on prices.

A number of large companies are focusing on new investments in the field of cargo transport as well as converting existing passenger aircraft to transport goods, which can be seen as optimistic signs for the industry. on cargo transportation capacity. Veteran industry analyst Chuck Clowdis said there is no guarantee that air freight rates will not increase in 2024. He argued that high capacity also means Scheduled flight capacity is also improving.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts that air cargo demand will decrease by 4.1% in 2023 compared to 2022. Demand according to IATA in 2023 is at -6.1% while capacity growth +8.7%. The decline in demand for air freight is a result of high inventory levels, continued capacity growth and the fact that comparative prices between air and ocean freight have led to a The state of transport mode transformation does not bode well for the air cargo industry in 2024.

Capacity growth is continuing to outpace demand (oversupply), with international global capacity approaching 2019 levels. Market interest rates are continuing to decline, but have slowed and Almost nothing has changed since May 2023, but compared to pre-pandemic interest rates, it is still quite high. These are the issues that air cargo industry operators need to take into account to better contribute to the overall picture of this industry in 2024.